FORECASTING DIGITAL ECONOMY GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN: A SCENARIO-BASED ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS (2023–2030)
Keywords:
Digital economy growth, economic forecasting, scenario analysis, econometric modelling time series analysis, internet penetration, digital transformation, regression analysis.Abstract
This study examines the transformation of the digital economy in Uzbekistan by applying econometric modelling and scenario-based forecasting techniques. Using annual data for the period 2010–2023, the paper estimates the impact of key digitalization indicators, including ICT development, internet penetration, and human capital, on economic growth.
The empirical analysis is based on a multiple regression model, which reveals that ICT development has a statistically significant and positive effect on GDP growth, followed by internet penetration and human capital. The model demonstrates satisfactory explanatory power and passes key diagnostic tests.
Based on the estimated relationships, the study provides forecasts for the period 2023–2030 under baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios. The results suggest that the share of the digital economy in GDP could reach 10–12% by 2030 under favourable conditions.
The findings contribute to the limited empirical literature on digital transformation in emerging economies and provide policy-relevant insights for accelerating digitalization in Uzbekistan.
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