UZBEKISTAN'S GREEN INDUSTRY CHALLENGE: MODERNIZING SOVIET-ERA PRODUCTION FOR A LOW-CARBON FUTURE

Abstract

This study examines Uzbekistan's transition from Soviet-era industrial infrastructure to a modern, low-carbon economy. The research analyzes the country's current greenhouse gas emissions profile, policy frameworks, renewable energy initiatives, and barriers to comprehensive industrial modernization. Data were collected from multiple international sources including the World Bank, International Energy Agency, CEIC Data, Worldometer, and government documents covering the period 2017-2024. Results indicate that despite achieving a 51% reduction in carbon intensity per unit of GDP between 2010 and 2021, absolute CO₂ emissions increased 25.7% from 2017 to 2023, reaching 137.9 million tonnes. Renewable energy capacity expanded dramatically from near-zero solar installations in 2019 to 1.8 GW by 2023, with targets of 27 GW and 40% renewable electricity by 2030. However, significant barriers persist including capital constraints requiring $20-30 billion investment, technical capacity gaps, regulatory enforcement weaknesses, and aging industrial infrastructure averaging over 30 years. The study concludes that while Uzbekistan has made substantial policy commitments and renewable energy progress, achieving comprehensive industrial decarbonization will require sustained international cooperation, massive capital mobilization, technical capacity building, and coordinated social support programs for affected workers.